PITCHER MATCHUP

Jack Flaherty vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jack Flaherty's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jack Flaherty's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Slider 25%Knuckle Curve 22%Changeup 3%Sinker 3%Unknown 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jack Flaherty, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.