PITCHER MATCHUP

Jack Flaherty vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jack Flaherty's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jack Flaherty's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .323vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Slider 25%Knuckle Curve 22%Changeup 3%Sinker 3%Unknown 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jack Flaherty, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 572 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.