PITCHER MATCHUP

Jack Flaherty vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jack Flaherty's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jack Flaherty's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Slider 25%Knuckle Curve 22%Changeup 3%Sinker 3%Unknown 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jack Flaherty, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 587 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 604 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 TT Tyrone Taylor RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyrone Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.