PITCHER MATCHUP

Jack Flaherty vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jack Flaherty's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jack Flaherty's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Slider 25%Knuckle Curve 22%Changeup 3%Sinker 3%Unknown 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jack Flaherty, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .404
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .438 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.