PITCHER MATCHUP

Jack Flaherty vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jack Flaherty's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jack Flaherty's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .329vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Slider 25%Knuckle Curve 23%Changeup 3%Sinker 2%Unknown 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jack Flaherty, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .390
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-28 game page →