PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Jax vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Jax's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Jax's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .314vs RHH xwOBA .287Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 32%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 18%Curveball 6%Cutter 3%Unknown 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Jax, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.