PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Jax vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Jax's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Jax's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 33%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 16%Curveball 6%Cutter 3%Unknown 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Jax, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 617 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.