PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Jax vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Jax's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Jax's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .288Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 34%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 15%Curveball 5%Cutter 4%Unknown 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Jax, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .302
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 585 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AS Anthony Seigler SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Anthony Seigler
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-17 game page →