PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Jax vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Jax's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Jax's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .317vs RHH xwOBA .286Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 32%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 18%Curveball 6%Cutter 3%Unknown 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Jax, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.