PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Jax vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Jax's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Jax's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 34%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 15%Curveball 5%Cutter 4%Unknown 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Jax, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 563 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .430 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Mitch Garver RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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