PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Jax vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Jax's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Jax's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 33%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 16%Curveball 6%Cutter 3%Unknown 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Jax, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 605 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VR Victor Robles RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.