PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Jax vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Jax's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Jax's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .291Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 34%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 16%Curveball 5%Cutter 4%Unknown 1%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Jax, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS George Springer RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Myles Straw RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Sweeper (34% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-22 game page →