PITCHER MATCHUP

Grayson Rodriguez vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grayson Rodriguez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grayson Rodriguez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .361vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 51%Changeup 21%Curveball 14%Slider 13%Unknown 1%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grayson Rodriguez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 RG Riley Greene LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-18 game page →