PITCHER MATCHUP

Grayson Rodriguez vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grayson Rodriguez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grayson Rodriguez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .367Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 51%Changeup 23%Curveball 13%Slider 13%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grayson Rodriguez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-09 game page →