PITCHER MATCHUP

Grayson Rodriguez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grayson Rodriguez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grayson Rodriguez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .346Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 51%Changeup 22%Curveball 14%Slider 12%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grayson Rodriguez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .417
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .428 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →