PITCHER MATCHUP

Grayson Rodriguez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grayson Rodriguez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grayson Rodriguez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .334Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 52%Changeup 25%Slider 12%Curveball 11%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grayson Rodriguez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .412
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .427 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.