PITCHER MATCHUP

Grayson Rodriguez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grayson Rodriguez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grayson Rodriguez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 51%Changeup 25%Slider 12%Curveball 12%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grayson Rodriguez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .412
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .428 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.