PITCHER MATCHUP

Grant Holmes vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grant Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grant Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 35%Four-Seam Fastball 32%Curveball 13%Cutter 11%Sinker 6%Changeup 4%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grant Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.