PITCHER MATCHUP

Grant Holmes vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grant Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grant Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 35%Four-Seam Fastball 33%Curveball 14%Cutter 10%Sinker 5%Changeup 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grant Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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