PITCHER MATCHUP

Grant Holmes vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grant Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grant Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 35%Four-Seam Fastball 31%Curveball 12%Cutter 11%Sinker 6%Changeup 4%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grant Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 516 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.