PITCHER MATCHUP

Grant Holmes vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grant Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grant Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 35%Four-Seam Fastball 31%Curveball 12%Cutter 10%Sinker 7%Changeup 5%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grant Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.