PITCHER MATCHUP

Grant Holmes vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grant Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grant Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 35%Four-Seam Fastball 33%Curveball 13%Cutter 11%Sinker 5%Changeup 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grant Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.