PITCHER MATCHUP

Grant Holmes vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grant Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grant Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 35%Four-Seam Fastball 31%Curveball 12%Cutter 10%Sinker 7%Changeup 5%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grant Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .401
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .429 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BM Brice Matthews RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.