PITCHER MATCHUP

Grant Holmes vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Grant Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Grant Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 35%Four-Seam Fastball 31%Curveball 12%Cutter 11%Sinker 6%Changeup 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Grant Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .401
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .427 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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