PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .259vs RHH xwOBA .311Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 16%Knuckle Curve 15%Changeup 9%Cutter 7%Sinker 5%Unknown 4%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 RG Riley Greene LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-22 game page →