PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .275vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 16%Knuckle Curve 16%Changeup 9%Cutter 7%Sinker 5%Unknown 3%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 564 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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