PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .288vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 19%Knuckle Curve 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 3%Cutter 3%Unknown 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 643 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Trevor Story RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NS Nick Sogard SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.