PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .267vs RHH xwOBA .332Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 17%Knuckle Curve 16%Changeup 11%Cutter 6%Sinker 5%Unknown 3%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (16% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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