PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 19%Knuckle Curve 15%Changeup 11%Sinker 3%Cutter 3%Unknown 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.