PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .277vs RHH xwOBA .313Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 18%Knuckle Curve 15%Changeup 12%Sinker 3%Cutter 3%Unknown 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .227 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-06 game page →