PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .285vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 19%Knuckle Curve 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 3%Cutter 3%Unknown 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 615 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.