PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .276vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 18%Knuckle Curve 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 5%Cutter 4%Unknown 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 578 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-02 game page →