PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .273vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 18%Knuckle Curve 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 4%Cutter 4%Unknown 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .329
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .409
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .427 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-27 game page →