PITCHER MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gerrit Cole's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gerrit Cole's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 19%Knuckle Curve 15%Changeup 11%Sinker 3%Cutter 3%Unknown 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gerrit Cole, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .404
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .427 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.