PITCHER MATCHUP

Germán Márquez vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Germán Márquez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Germán Márquez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .382vs RHH xwOBA .345Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Knuckle Curve 34%Sinker 18%Slider 10%Changeup 3%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Germán Márquez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (34% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (34% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (34% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (34% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS George Springer RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (34% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (34% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Myles Straw RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (34% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-12 game page →