PITCHER MATCHUP

George Kirby vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against George Kirby's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

George Kirby's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .307vs RHH xwOBA .293Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Sweeper 28%Sinker 23%Knuckle Curve 10%Changeup 4%Splitter 3%Cutter 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against George Kirby, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 619 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TS Trevor Story RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-31 game page →