PITCHER MATCHUP

George Kirby vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against George Kirby's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

George Kirby's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .300Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Sweeper 27%Sinker 24%Knuckle Curve 10%Changeup 4%Splitter 3%Cutter 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against George Kirby, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-23 game page →