PITCHER MATCHUP

George Kirby vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against George Kirby's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

George Kirby's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Sweeper 28%Sinker 24%Knuckle Curve 10%Changeup 5%Splitter 3%Cutter 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against George Kirby, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.