PITCHER MATCHUP

George Kirby vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against George Kirby's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

George Kirby's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .305vs RHH xwOBA .293Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Sweeper 28%Sinker 24%Knuckle Curve 10%Changeup 5%Splitter 3%Cutter 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against George Kirby, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .380
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.