PITCHER MATCHUP

Gabriel Hughes vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gabriel Hughes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gabriel Hughes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .254vs RHH xwOBA .216Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 57%Slider 12%Sweeper 9%Changeup 9%Curveball 7%Sinker 5%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gabriel Hughes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .262
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BW Ben Williamson RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NF Nick Fortes RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-04 game page →