PITCHER MATCHUP

Gabriel Hughes vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gabriel Hughes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gabriel Hughes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .256Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 59%Slider 13%Sweeper 10%Changeup 9%Curveball 7%Sinker 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gabriel Hughes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →