PITCHER MATCHUP

Gabriel Hughes vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gabriel Hughes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gabriel Hughes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .279Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 50%Changeup 12%Curveball 11%Sinker 10%Slider 9%Sweeper 8%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gabriel Hughes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 516 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.