PITCHER MATCHUP

Gabriel Hughes vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gabriel Hughes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gabriel Hughes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .294vs RHH xwOBA .275Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Changeup 12%Curveball 11%Sinker 10%Slider 9%Sweeper 8%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gabriel Hughes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .332
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 579 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 635 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-19 game page →