PITCHER MATCHUP

Freddy Peralta vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Freddy Peralta's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Freddy Peralta's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .292Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 53%Changeup 21%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 2%CS 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Freddy Peralta, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 560 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 604 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 IH Ian Happ SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 618 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.