PITCHER MATCHUP

Freddy Peralta vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Freddy Peralta's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Freddy Peralta's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .289Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 53%Changeup 21%Curveball 12%Slider 10%Sweeper 2%CS 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Freddy Peralta, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MB Michael Busch LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.