PITCHER MATCHUP

Freddy Peralta vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Freddy Peralta's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Freddy Peralta's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .307vs RHH xwOBA .286Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 53%Changeup 21%Curveball 12%Slider 11%CS 2%Sweeper 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Freddy Peralta, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Ian Happ SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MB Michael Busch LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-25 game page →