PITCHER MATCHUP

Freddy Peralta vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Freddy Peralta's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Freddy Peralta's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .294Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 53%Changeup 21%Curveball 12%Slider 10%Sweeper 2%CS 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Freddy Peralta, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .396
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (2% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-13 game page →