PITCHER MATCHUP

Ethan Pecko vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ethan Pecko's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ethan Pecko's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .380vs RHH xwOBA .228Seasons 2026
Sinker 23%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sweeper 19%Cutter 19%Curveball 13%Changeup 5%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ethan Pecko, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 638 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .384
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.