PITCHER MATCHUP

Ethan Pecko vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ethan Pecko's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ethan Pecko's arsenal

Throws RHPSeasons 2026
Sinker 29%Four-Seam Fastball 28%Cutter 15%Curveball 14%Sweeper 8%Changeup 7%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ethan Pecko, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BB Brett Baty LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 FL Francisco Lindor SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JS Juan Soto LHB .400
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .452 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-30 game page →