PITCHER MATCHUP

Ethan Pecko vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ethan Pecko's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ethan Pecko's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .404vs RHH xwOBA .215Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 22%Sinker 22%Cutter 20%Sweeper 19%Curveball 13%Changeup 5%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ethan Pecko, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 639 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .432 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-23 game page →