PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .271Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 639 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TS Trevor Story RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.