PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .297vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 38%Knuckle Curve 9%Sinker 5%Changeup 4%Sweeper 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 IK Isiah Kiner-Falefa RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isiah Kiner-Falefa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-16 game page →