PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .273Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.