PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 37%Knuckle Curve 9%Sinker 6%Changeup 5%Sweeper 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 595 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.