PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .266Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 37%Knuckle Curve 9%Sinker 6%Changeup 5%Sweeper 4%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .268
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .263
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .269
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-20 game page →