PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .273Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 492 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .271
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .256
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .268
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.