PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .268
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .262
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.