PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .282vs RHH xwOBA .270Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-13 game page →