PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .273Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CE Colt Emerson LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LR Leo Rivas SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Rivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.