PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .297vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 37%Knuckle Curve 9%Sinker 5%Changeup 5%Sweeper 4%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 551 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .421 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luke Raley LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CE Colt Emerson LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-03 game page →