PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .288vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VR Victor Robles RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.