PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .266Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 37%Knuckle Curve 9%Sinker 6%Changeup 5%Sweeper 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 579 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.