PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .271Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 577 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 599 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 617 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.