PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .297vs RHH xwOBA .269Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 38%Knuckle Curve 9%Sinker 5%Changeup 4%Sweeper 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Ian Happ SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MB Michael Busch LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MB Moisés Ballesteros LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Moisés Ballesteros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-21 game page →