PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .282vs RHH xwOBA .270Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .302
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MW Masyn Winn RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NC Nathan Church LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JF José Fermín RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 VS Victor Scott II LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Scott II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.