PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 37%Knuckle Curve 9%Sinker 6%Changeup 5%Sweeper 4%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-31 game page →