PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .266Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 37%Knuckle Curve 9%Sinker 6%Changeup 5%Sweeper 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .391
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.