PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .273Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .383
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.