PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .273Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 36%Knuckle Curve 9%Changeup 6%Sinker 6%Sweeper 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .382
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BM Brice Matthews RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.