PITCHER MATCHUP

Dylan Cease vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dylan Cease's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dylan Cease's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .297vs RHH xwOBA .269Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 38%Knuckle Curve 9%Sinker 5%Changeup 4%Sweeper 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dylan Cease, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .384
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CS Cam Smith RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (38% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-22 game page →