PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .328vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 30%Sinker 26%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Cutter 15%Changeup 4%Curveball 3%Unknown 2%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 SP Salvador Perez RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MG Maikel Garcia RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Maikel Garcia
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 IC Isaac Collins SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Lane Thomas RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NL Nick Loftin RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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