PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 28%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 16%Changeup 4%Curveball 4%Unknown 2%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IC Isaac Collins SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LT Lane Thomas RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nick Loftin RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SM Starling Marte RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tyler Tolbert RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Tolbert
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.