PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 29%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 16%Changeup 4%Curveball 3%Unknown 2%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JB JJ Bleday LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-24 game page →