PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 26%Sinker 26%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 18%Curveball 5%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jake Mangum SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.