PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 27%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 17%Curveball 4%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 560 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.