PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 28%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 16%Changeup 4%Curveball 4%Unknown 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-06 game page →