PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 26%Sinker 26%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 18%Curveball 5%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .366
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .435 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 621 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 BH Bryce Harper LHB .371
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 BS Bryson Stott LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Justin Crawford LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DH Derek Hill RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Derek Hill
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SW Shay Whitcomb RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Shay Whitcomb
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.