PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 27%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 17%Curveball 4%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 713 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .366
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .436 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 611 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .370
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 572 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-22 game page →