PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 27%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 17%Curveball 4%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LC Luis Campusano RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.