PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 30%Sinker 26%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Cutter 14%Changeup 4%Curveball 3%Unknown 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 RD Rodolfo Durán RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rodolfo Durán
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.