PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 28%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 16%Changeup 4%Curveball 4%Unknown 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.