PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 26%Sinker 26%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 18%Curveball 5%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .376
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.