PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 27%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 17%Curveball 4%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 563 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .374
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-18 game page →