PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .335vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 30%Sinker 26%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Cutter 15%Changeup 4%Curveball 3%Unknown 2%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CN Connor Norby RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Joe Mack LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-26 game page →