PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 28%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 16%Changeup 4%Curveball 4%Unknown 2%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.