PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 27%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 17%Curveball 4%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.