PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 26%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 17%Curveball 5%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.