PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 28%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 16%Changeup 4%Curveball 4%Unknown 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .328
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 TW Taylor Ward RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 600 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 VR Victor Robles RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-19 game page →