PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 27%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 17%Changeup 4%Curveball 4%Unknown 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 570 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 610 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tyrone Taylor RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyrone Taylor
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.