PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 29%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 16%Changeup 4%Curveball 3%Unknown 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →