PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 26%Sinker 26%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 18%Curveball 5%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.