PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 27%Sinker 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Cutter 17%Curveball 4%Changeup 4%Unknown 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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