PITCHER MATCHUP

Dustin May vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Dustin May's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Dustin May's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .335vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 30%Sinker 26%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Cutter 15%Changeup 4%Curveball 3%Unknown 2%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Dustin May, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 574 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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