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Pitcher

DJ Herz

Model projection · strikeout prop
No graded line yet for tonight's start vs. Tigers. The projection appears when the model has a line to price.
ERA
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FIP
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IP
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W-L
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WHIP
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K%
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BB%
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GB%
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K/9
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HR/9
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Tonight's Matchup

vs. Tigers · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Tigers current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .322

  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RG Riley Greene LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JB Javier Báez SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

54% of pitches · .283 xwOBA allowed · 192 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
1%1%4%5%5%2%5%7%9%4%5%11%13%9%5%1%1%2%2%0%2%3%2%1%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.000.345.176.172.345.374.065.179.299.274.026.159.267.484.199.000.622.324.194–.689.459.248.448–
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.000.004.007.008.017.006.003.013.026.012.001.017.035.045.011.000.009.006.004–.012.012.005.004–
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage) has allowed .283 xwOBA over 192 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

4 pitch types · 1,587-pitch sample · 2024 season

Four-Seam Fastball FF
54% usage · 26% whiff · .283 xwOBA
Changeup CH
25% usage · 25% whiff · .283 xwOBA
Slider SL
18% usage · 28% whiff · .288 xwOBA
Knuckle Curve KC
3% usage · .421 xwOBA
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2024 season
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB25 .292 91
vs. RHB28.6 .284 289
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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