PITCHER MATCHUP

Corbin Burnes vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Corbin Burnes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Corbin Burnes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .298vs RHH xwOBA .313Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 50%Curveball 21%Slider 10%Changeup 9%Sinker 9%Sweeper 1%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Corbin Burnes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .374
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MG Maikel Garcia RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Maikel Garcia
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KI Kyle Isbel LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Isbel
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.