PITCHER MATCHUP

Corbin Burnes vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Corbin Burnes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Corbin Burnes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .298vs RHH xwOBA .313Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 50%Curveball 21%Slider 10%Changeup 9%Sinker 9%Sweeper 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Corbin Burnes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .225 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-26 game page →