PITCHER MATCHUP

Corbin Burnes vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Corbin Burnes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Corbin Burnes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .298vs RHH xwOBA .313Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 50%Curveball 21%Slider 10%Changeup 9%Sinker 9%Sweeper 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Corbin Burnes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Cutter (50% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.